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Market Insight: Toyota ups sales projections
Matt Brogan
2026-04-07
TOYOTA has revised its 2026 sales projection upward as demand for several of its key SUV and utility models exceeds predictions following a soft first quarter impacted by supply constraints, the ramp-up of new-generation HiLux deliveries and imminent arrival of the latest RAV4.
With the release of first-quarter figures today, the Japanese importer is on track to sell close to 210,000 new vehicles by the end of the calendar year, five per cent higher than Toyota’s own initial forecast.
Speaking with media gathered for the debut of the HiLux BEV in Melbourne last week, Toyota Australia vice president of sales, marketing and franchise operations John Pappas said March VFACTS figures indicate a positive trajectory ahead for at least six of Toyota’s strongest-selling models.
“Toyota has begun this year with real excitement,” he said.
“At the beginning of January, we forecast delivering in excess of 200,000 vehicles in 2026, and with March sales of over 16,000 units, we are now in excess of 43,500 sales year-to-date.
“Standout performers for March include the bZ4X, Camry, Corolla Cross, HiAce, and LandCruiser 300 Series.
“But VFACTS doesn’t always tell the full story – it doesn’t show customer demand.
“Customer demand remains very strong across the range, particularly with vehicles like the LandCruiser 300 Series, HiLux, LandCruiser Prado, and of course, the RAV4.
“With this demand, and the increased supply ahead, we expect to remain firmly on track to exceed 200,000 sales in 2026.
“In fact, we are on track to exceed 210,000 sales – something no other automotive brand in Australia has achieved.”
Toyota sold 16,574 vehicles in March, or 3967 units fewer than the same time last year, the impact on market share being a fall from 19.9 per cent a year ago to 15.7 per cent today.
Despite the slowdown, the brand remains Australia’s number one seller with a 22,600-unit lead YTD on second-placed Mazda (with 21,890 deliveries in the first quarter).
The popular models listed by Mr Pappas – LandCruiser 300 Series, HiLux, LandCruiser Prado, and RAV4 – have sold 2857 units, 10,592 units, 4515 units, and 3842 units respectively year-to-date.
“Customers have been responding very well to the updated bZ4X and the value proposition it provides,” added Mr Pappas.
“Based on this positive response, we are planning to deliver 5000 bZ4Xs this year.
“To put that in perspective, we delivered just over 1000 examples of the bZ4X last year.”
The repositioning on the bZ4X appears to have provided the model with the impetus needed to garner more sales.
In December, Toyota slashed the price of the bZ4X range by almost $10,000 while enhancing the model’s value proposition via the inclusion of more standard equipment, a larger battery, and additional power and torque.
The bZ4X is one of several models Mr Pappas said will drive Toyota’s numbers to a new record, at the same time noting a slower than usual start for key models that include the HiLux light commercial utility and RAV4 medium SUV, both of which are currently transitioning between generations.
“Our (sales) performance is in line with our 2026 forecasts, and we anticipated a measured start to this year as we transitioned two of our highest volume models – the HiLux and RAV4 – to new generations,” he noted.
“The RAV4 transition from the outgoing to the incoming model has been very smooth and demand has held strongly. Our order bank remains very healthy, and we’ve maintained outstanding resale value by avoiding discounting.
“Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026 as HiLux and RAV4 volumes increase, and our monthly results will begin to increase as the year moves on.”
Toyota sold 1362 examples of the RAV4 in March as it runs out stock ahead of the new model’s arrival. That number compares with 4321 examples in March 2025, or a reduction of 68.5 per cent.
HiLux sales are mixed across two- and four-wheel drive variants. Toyota sold 531 examples of the HiLux 4x2 in March (compared with 721 in the same month last year) and 3636 examples of the HiLux 4x4 (compared with 3360 in March 2025).
While Mr Pappas was obviously buoyed by the sales performance of Toyota to date, he was quick to note that the statistics presented are not necessarily a reliable indicator of overall demand.
In addressing concerns around the impact of fuel prices and supply on its continued success, he said the level of demand on the showroom floor was one that was likely to create an altogether separate issue – one of increased wait times.
“The Australian new vehicle market is more competitive than ever, and customers have more choice. But Toyota continues to earn trust, and through trust, and our established dealer network, part supply network, and renowned quality, durability, and reliability,” he spruiked.
“However, this increase in demand may lead to an increase in wait times.
“I want to assure our customers that we are in constant dialogue with our colleagues in Japan to ensure that we have supply in the pipeline to meet the demand for the majority of our models.
“Wait times at a nation level are sitting between three- and six months. This obviously varies by model, by grade, and by dealer.”
GoAuto will endeavor to keep readers posted of any wait times to Toyota models as they come to hand.
Toyota YTD sales by model March 2025 v March 2026*:
|
|
Q1 2025
|
Q1 2026
|
Variance
|
|
bZ4X
|
210
|
840
|
+300.0%
|
|
Camry
|
1758
|
3225
|
+83.4%
|
|
C-HR
|
764
|
406
|
-46.9%
|
|
Coaster
|
97
|
159
|
+63.9%
|
|
Corolla
|
4671
|
4390
|
-6.0%
|
|
Corolla Cross
|
3211
|
3610
|
+12.4%
|
|
Fortuner
|
981
|
720
|
-26.6%
|
|
GR86
|
186
|
172
|
-7.5%
|
|
Granvia
|
24
|
1
|
-95.8%
|
|
HiAce
|
2901
|
3336
|
+15.0%
|
|
HiAce Commuter
|
752
|
118
|
-84.3%
|
|
HiLux 4x2
|
1746
|
1641
|
-6.0%
|
|
HiLux 4x4
|
9253
|
8951
|
-3.3%
|
|
Kluger
|
1802
|
1202
|
-33.3%
|
|
LandCruiser 70
|
2304
|
1287
|
-44.1%
|
|
LandCruiser 300
|
904
|
2857
|
+216.0%
|
|
LandCruiser Prado
|
8441
|
4515
|
-46.5%
|
|
Mirai
|
1
|
0
|
-100.0%
|
|
RAV4
|
13,802
|
3842
|
-72.2%
|
|
Supra
|
31
|
27
|
-12.9%
|
|
Tundra
|
223
|
262
|
+17.5%
|
|
Yaris
|
720
|
473
|
-34.3%
|
|
Yaris Cross
|
3015
|
2456
|
-18.5%
|
*Sales data supplied courtesy of VFACTS