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Market Insight: Toyota exceeds sales forecasts
Matt Brogan
2025-12-08
TOYOTA is expected to sell more than 235,000 new vehicles in Australia by the end of 2025 – 15,000 more than it originally predicted – and its year-to-date volume tally is ahead of the same time last year.
Despite Toyota’s full-year prediction falling short of the all-time record set in 2024 (241,296 units), it has managed to exceed its forecasts against a backdrop of increased competition and the runout of high-volume models such at the RAV4 and HiLux.
Speaking with media gathered for the national launch of the 2026 HiLux ute in Canberra last week, Toyota Australia vice president of sales, marketing, and franchise operations Sean Hanley said several factors had helped buoy the brand’s results, not least the popularity of its hybrid vehicle range.
“At the start of this year, we shared that Toyota was targeting in excess of 220,000 sales in 2025. That was off the back of our all-time record last year,” he noted.
“In the October VFACTS report, Toyota was well on track, sitting on 201,535 vehicles year-to-date.
“After November, we expect to be over 221,000 sales, meaning that at the end of 2025 we now expect to exceed 235,000.”
Mr Hanley said much of that success was off the back of Toyota’s “market leading” hybrid models, which at last count tallied close to 104,000 units.
“This year, we (also) continue to see the popularity of our market-leading hybrid technology increase, with our electrified share sitting at 47 per cent of total year sales,” he added.
In January, the Toyota brand will celebrate more than two decades at the top of the Australian new car sales ladder, a position Mr Hanley attributed to the efforts of a 270-strong dealer network and a range of vehicles well suited to the many and varied demands of Australian buyers.
“Toyota continues to be ranked as a leading OEM by our dealer partners, and that is a sign of their partnership, and equally a sign of their trust in the brand,” he enthused.
“Now, as we approach the end of the calendar year, Toyota proudly maintains its leadership position in Australia for the 23rd consecutive year, which is a remarkable achievement in what would be considered one of the most competitive new car markets in the world.”
Looking ahead, Mr Hanley said electrification would proliferate with zero- and low-emissions offerings that will include an all-electric HiLux light commercial utility for the first time and that by the end of the decade almost a third of Toyota sales in Australia will comprise battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel-cell models and variants.
“The latter half of this decade marks a pivotal time for the automotive industry across the globe, and indeed here in Australia,” he remarked.
“Toyota is committed to its multi-pathway approach (to electrification), ensuring we have the right technology to meet customer needs now, and in the future.
“Our customers and our dealers know this very well. All have different needs, and we need to respond to those requirements – we have always said that it is our customers that will dictate the pace of change and that will inform the technology transition.
“As we look toward the second half of this decade, Toyota Australia’s ambition is clear – we believe that by the end of 2030 we will achieve a 30 per cent ZLEV (zero- or low emissions vehicle) sales share (and) that includes battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell electric vehicles.
“This is informed by the trends we are currently seeing in the market.”
Importantly, Mr Hanley said that more than half of the purchases made heading forward will come from return customers.
Noting sales data collected over its time in the Australian market, Mr Hanley said that 51 per cent of Toyota buyers have owned a Toyota vehicle before, suggesting the brand’s reputation for reliability, durability and aftersales support remain critical to its position atop the sales ladder.
“Our research shows that reliability, durability, and above all aftersales support remain critical customer drivers,” he said.
“We have Australia’s most extensive genuine parts distribution network and service network, and market-leading residual and resale values.
“This is particularly important to any customer with a finance or lease arrangement and is one of the main reasons we are able to attract and retain more than half of our valued customers.”
2015-25 Toyota sales and market share totals*:
|
|
Sales total
|
Market share
|
|
2025
|
221,232^
|
19.9%^
|
|
2024
|
241,296
|
19.8%
|
|
2023
|
215,240
|
17.7%
|
|
2022
|
231,050
|
21.4%
|
|
2021
|
223,642
|
21.3%
|
|
2020
|
204,801
|
22.3%
|
|
2019
|
205,766
|
19.4%
|
|
2018
|
217,061
|
18.8%
|
|
2017
|
216,566
|
19.2%
|
|
2016
|
209,610
|
17.8%
|
|
2015
|
206,236
|
17.8%
|
*All sales data supplied courtesy of VFACTS.
^Year-to-date as of 30 November.